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HERITON CAPITAL

2025 results: change in financial architecture

  • Writer: Zener Group
    Zener Group
  • Jan 21
  • 3 min read

This article summarises the main findings of 2025 and presents them in the context of verified institutional research and official publications. The focus is not on price forecasts, but on structural changes in the global monetary system.



1. 2026 Is Not a Crypto Cycle - It Is a Monetary Shift


The podcast argues that traditional crypto narratives - halving cycles, speculative booms, institutional adoption - are becoming less relevant. What matters instead is a structural transition toward state-backed digital money and infrastructure.


This view aligns with leading international institutions, which increasingly describe money as a programmable, state-governed system rather than a neutral technology.


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2. China Is the Central Actor, Not the United States


According to the podcast, US regulation and enforcement actions are no longer the primary threat to crypto. The real challenge comes from China’s technological substitution strategy.

Rather than banning crypto outright, China is replacing it with a fully functional digital alternative: the digital yuan (e-CNY), already embedded in the real economy.


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3. Convenience Beats Ideology


A central claim of the podcast is that financial systems win not because they are philosophically superior, but because they are more convenient and economically efficient.

CBDCs succeed because they:

  • Are faster and cheaper,

  • Integrate seamlessly with taxation and trade,

  • Reduce fx and settlement friction,

  • Are directly supported by the state.

This mirrors research on payment adoption and network effects.


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4. Project mBridge Undermines Crypto’s Core Use Case


The podcast highlights Project mBridge, led by the Bank for International Settlements, as a decisive development. mBridge enables:

  • Direct CBDC-to-CBDC settlements,

  • Elimination of dollar intermediaries,

  • Bypassing correspondent banking and SWIFT.

This directly competes with what was once crypto’s strongest real-world use case: cross-border payments.


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5. Crypto’s Weak Point Is Not the Blockchain - It Is the Exits


While Bitcoin is technically decentralized, the podcast stresses that real-world usage depends on centralized gateways:

  • Exchanges,

  • Stablecoins,

  • Banking rails.

Governments do not need to break cryptography; they only need to regulate or restrict these access points.


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6. Stablecoins Are a Systemic Vulnerability


The podcast describes USDT and other stablecoins as a form of shadow banking, providing liquidity without full transparency or sovereign backing. Regulators increasingly share this concern.


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7. Mining Depends on Geopolitics, Not Just Code


Another key point is the physical vulnerability of Bitcoin mining:

  • Reliance on ASIC hardware,

  • Dependence on Chinese and Taiwanese semiconductor supply chains,

  • Exposure to export controls and trade restrictions.

This makes future halvings potentially destabilizing rather than bullish.


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8. Crypto Is Being Squeezed from Both Sides


The podcast frames the situation as a two-sided compression:

  • The East (China) builds sovereign digital payment systems,

  • The West (EU, US) tightens regulation and compliance.

Crypto is caught between state infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.


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9. The Core Conclusion


Crypto will not be banned.It will be outcompeted, regulated, and made economically marginal. This trajectory is openly discussed by BIS and IMF as a plausible outcome of CBDC adoption.


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Short Summary for Publication


  • CBDCs will be more efficient than crypto

  • States will reclaim monetary control

  • Decentralization will survive only as a niche


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